HURRICANE MODEL: A new study contradicts climate change experts who blame high hurricane incidence on global warming.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released conclusions of their new hurricane model Sunday. Adding fuel to a fiery debate among meteorologists who link global warming with increased hurricane activity, this study predicts hurricane numbers will decline as ocean temperatures warm. But, say the study’s researchers, hurricanes will likely become more intense.

Hurricane Numbers May Fall: Global Warming Off the Hook?

Tom Knutson, a meteorologist with NOAA’s fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J., supports the idea that rapid global climate change is potentially harmful. Nonetheless, the results of his recent study suggest that global warming is not linked to an increase in hurricane activity.

Most climate scientists now agree that greenhouse gas-induced climate change is warming ocean temperatures. Knutson’s computer model simulations predict warmer ocean temperatures will actually drop the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those hitting land between the years 2080 and 3000.

Specifically, Knutson’s model estimates:

• Hurricane numbers in the Atlantic will drop 18% by the turn of the century.
• Wind factors will cause the number of hurricanes reaching land in the United States and areas west of Puerto Rico to fall by 30%.
• Storms with winds faster than 110 mph (the biggest storms) will only drop by 8%.
• Storms with winds between 39 and 73 mph (tropical storms) will drop 27%.

Fewer Hurricanes: Not Necessarily Good News

Though Knutson’s model suggests that overall storm frequency would be down, the study predicts that hurricanes and tropical storms that do form will be more intense. Specifically, the model expects:

• 37% jump in rainfall within 30 miles of a hurricane
• 2% increase in wind strength, which Knutson says is an underestimation

Wind Storm: Voices of Opposition

Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane meteorologist at MIT, called Knutson’s model “demonstrably wrong” because it doesn’t assess storms correctly. (AP, 5/18/08)

Climate scientist Kevin Trenberth, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said Knutson’s model poorly addresses the intensity, duration and size of hurricanes.

Knutson agreed that his model does not give details of individual hurricanes, but that its purpose is to give a coarse overview. Though the model predicts a drop in future hurricane activity, Knutson said, "We do not regard this study as the last word on this topic.” (BBC News, 5/18/08)

Copyright © 2009 Informify

Sources

'Fewer hurricanes' as world warms (BBC News, 5/18/08)

Study says global warming not worsening hurricanes (Associated Press, 5/18/08)

Study predicts fewer, but more powerful hurricanes in future (Palm Beach Post, 5/18/08)

Question for Readers:

What do you think is worse: Higher numbers of less intense hurricanes or fewer hurricanes of high intensity?